Wednesday, January 9, 2013

Hardening Sprints. What are they? Do you need them?

For anyone who is developing software using Scrum, XP or another incremental development approach, the idea of a “hardening sprint” or a “release iteration” is bound to come up. But people disagree about what a “hardening sprint” should include, when you need to do one, and if you should do them at all. There is a deep divide between people who recognize that spending some time on hardening is needed for many environments, and people who are adamant that allocating some time for hardening is a sign that you are doing some things – or everything – wrong.

Hardening to make sure that Done means Done

In a hardening sprint, the team stops focusing on delivering new features or architecture, and instead spends their time on stabilizing the system and getting it ready to be released.

For some people, hardening sprints are for completing testing and fixing work that couldn't be done – or didn't get done – earlier. This might include UAT or other final acceptance testing if this is built into a contract or governance model.

Mike Cohn recognizes that teams may need a “release sprint” at the end of each release cycle, because the team’s definition of “done” may not be enough – that a "potentially shippable product" and a system that is actually “shippable” or ready for production aren't the same thing. He suggests that after every 3-5 feature iterations, the team may want to schedule a release sprint to do work like expensive manual system and integration testing and extra reviews, whatever is needed to make sure that what they think is done, is actually done.

Anand Viswanath, in “The end of regression, stabilisation, hardening or release sprints”, describes a common approach where teams schedule 1 or 2 stabilization sprints every 4-6 iterations to do regression testing and system testing in a staging environment, and then fix whatever bugs are found. As he points out, it’s hard to predict how much testing might be required and long it will take to fix whatever problems are found, so the idea is to time box this work and then triage the results.

Because this can be an expensive and risky and stressful way to work, Vishwanath recommends following Continuous Delivery to build an automated test pipeline through to staging in order to catch as many problems as early as possible. This is a good idea, but most large projects, especially projects starting from a legacy code base, will still probably need some kind of hardening or integration testing phase at regular points regardless of what kind of continuous testing they are doing.

Some testing, like interoperability testing with other systems and operational testing, can’t be done effectively until later, when there is enough of a working system to do end-to-end testing, and some of this testing can only be done in staging (if you have a staging environment), or in production. For some systems, load testing and stress testing and soak testing also needs to be left to later, because these teams don’t have access to a big enough test system to run high load scenarios before they get to production.

Is Hardening a sign that you aren't doing things right?

Not everyone thinks that scheduling a hardening sprint for testing and fixing like this is a good idea:

“[a hardening sprint] might take the cake for stupid things invented that has lead to institutionalized delusion and ‘Agile’ dysfunction.” Janelle Klein, Who Came up with the “Hardening Sprint”?
For many people, a hardening sprint or release sprint is a bad “process smell”: a sign that the team isn't working properly or thinking clearly:
“The problem with “hardening sprints” is that you are lying. You make believe your imaginary burndown during the initial sprints shows that you are approaching Done. But it’s a lie--you aren't getting any closer to being ready for Production until you begin your Test phase. You wrote a pile of code that you didn't test adequately. You don’t know how good it is, you don’t know how much work you have left to do, and you don’t know how much longer it will take, until you are deep into your Test phase.” Richard Kasperowski, Hardening sprints? Sorry, you’re not Agile

Ron Jeffries says that a hardening sprint for testing and fixing is a clear anti-pattern. I agree: if you need a separate sprint to fix bugs, then you’re doing something wrong. But that doesn't mean that you won’t need extra time to fix things before the system goes live – knowing that it is wrong doesn't make the bugs go away, you still have to fix them. As somebody else on this same discussion thread points out, there is a risk that your “definition of done” could fall short of what is actually needed by the customer, so you should plan for 1 or more hardening sprints before release, to double-check and stabilize things, just in case.

In these cases, the need for hardening sprints is a sign of a team’s immaturity (from a post by Paul Beavers):

  1. A beginning agile team will prefer to schedule 6 hardening iterations after a 12 iteration development plan. This is “agile” to the hard core “waterfall guy”.
  2. As time goes by, the team will mature a bit and you will see the seasoned agile team will shrink the number of required hardening iterations at the end, just because they understand they need to “fix” the high severity bugs as they go and QA understands they need to test closer and better early up in the release cycle.
  3. Further down the road the team will notice that by adding a hardening iteration in the middle of the development cycle (and flushing out even lesser priority bugs earlier on in the process), it will help them to maintain cadence later on.
  4. The final step of maturity is there when the team starts understanding “hardening is not required any more”, because they made fixing bugs part of their daily routines.

Hardening is whatever you need to do to Make the System Ready for Production

Another way of looking at hardening, is that this is when you stop thinking about features and focus all of your time on the detailed steps of deploying, installing and configuring the system and making sure that everything is working from end-to-end. In a hardening sprint, your most important customers are operations and support, the people who are going to make sure that the system is running, rather than the end users.

For some teams, this kind of hardening can come as an ugly and expensive surprise, after they understand that what they need to do is to take a working functional prototype and make it ready for the real world:

“All those things that got skipped in the first phase - error handling, monitoring, administration - need to get put into the product.” Catherine Powell, The "Hardening Myth"

But a hardening sprint can also be when when you take care of what operations calls hardening: reviewing and preparing the production environment and securing the run-time, tightening up access to production data, double-checking system and application configs, making sure that auditing is enabled properly, wiring the system in to operations monitoring and metrics collection, checking system dependencies like platform software versions and patch levels (and making sure that all of the systems are consistent, that there aren't any snowflakes), completing final security reviews and other review and release gates, and making sure that the people installing and running the software have the correct instructions.This is also when you need to prepare your roll-back plan or recovery plan if something bad happens with the release, and test your roll-back and recovery steps. Walk through and rehearse the release process and checklists, and make sure that everyone is prepared to roll out patches quickly after the release is done.

Hardening is something that you have to do

Some people see an obvious need for hardening sprints. For example, Dean Leffingwell includes hardening sprints in his “Scaled Agile Framework”, because there is some work that can only really be done in a final hardening phase:

  • Final exploratory and field testing
  • Checklist validation against release, QA and standards governance
  • Release signoffs if you need them
  • Ops documentation
  • Deployment package
  • Communicate release to everyone (hard to do in big companies)
  • Traceability etc for high assurance and regulatory compliance
Leffingwell makes it clear that hardening shouldn't include system integration, fixing high priority bugs, automating test scripts, user documentation, regression testing and code cleanup. There is other work that should be done earlier – but in the first year or so, will probably need to be done in a late hardening phase:
  • Cross-component integration, integration with third-party/customer
  • Integrated system-level testing
  • Final QA sign-offs
  • User doc finalization
  • Localization

Dan Rawsthorne explains that teams need at least one release sprint at first to get ready for release to production, because until you've actually done it, you don’t really know what you need to do. Release sprints include tasks like:

  • Exploratory testing to double check that key features are working properly
  • Stress testing/load testing/performance testing – testing that is expensive to setup and do
  • Interoperability testing with other production systems
  • Fix whatever comes out of this testing
  • Review and finish off any documentation
  • Train support and sales and customers on new features
  • Help with press releases and other marketing material

The Software Project Manager’s Bridge to Agility anticipates that teams will need at least a short hardening iteration before the system is ready for release, even if they frontload as much testing as possible. A release iteration is not a test-fix phase – it’s when you prepare for the release: capturing screenshots for marketing materials, final tests, small tweaks, finish documentation for whoever needs it, training. The authors suggest however that if some developers have any time left over in the release iteration, they can do some refactoring and other cleanup – which I think is bad advice, given that at this point you don’t want to be introducing any new variables or risks.

Disciplined Agile Delivery, a method that was developed by Scott Ambler at IBM to scale Agile practices to large organizations and large projects, includes a Transition Phase before each release to take care of:

  • Transition planning and coordination
  • End-of-lifecycle testing and fixing
  • Testing and rehearsing deployment
  • Data setup and migration
  • Pilots and beta testing (short UAT if necessary)
  • Reviewing and finalizing documentation
  • Preparing operations and support
  • Stakeholder training
This kind of transition can take almost no time, or it can take several weeks, depending on the situation.

Hardening – taking some time to make sure that the system is really ready to be released – can’t be avoided. The longer your release cycles, the further away development is from day-to-day production, the more hardening you need. Even if you've been doing disciplined testing and reviews in stream, you’re going to find some problems at the end. Even if you planned ahead for transition, you’re going to run into operational details that you didn't know about or didn't understand until the end.

When we first launched our platform from startup, we had to do hardening and stabilization work before going live to get the system ready, and some more work afterwards to deal with operational issues and requirements that we weren't prepared for. We included time at the end of subsequent releases for extra testing, deployment and roll back planning, and release coordination.

But as we shortened our release cycle, releasing less but more often, and as we built more fail-safes into the system and as we learned more about what we needed to do in ops, and as we invested more in simplifying and automating deployment and everything else that we could, we found that we didn't need time any outside of our regular iterations for hardening. We’re still doing hardening – but now this is part of the day-to-day job of building and releasing software.

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Classic Mistakes in Software Development and Maintenance

…the only difference between experienced and inexperienced developers is that the experienced ones realize when they’re making mistakes.
Jeff Atwood, Escaping from Gilligan’s Island

An important part of risk management, and responsible management at all, is making sure that you aren't doing anything obviously stupid. Steve McConnell’s list of Classic Mistakesis a place to start: a list of common basic mistakes in developing software and in managing development work, mistakes that are made so often, by so many people, that we all need to be aware of them.

McConnell originally created this list in 1996 for his book Rapid Development (still one of the best books on managing software development). The original list of 36 mistakes was updated in 2008 to a total of 42 common mistakes based on a survey of more than 500 developers and managers. The mistakes that have the highest impact, the mistakes that will most likely led to failure, are:

  1. Unrealistic expectations
  2. Weak personnel
  3. Overly optimistic schedules
  4. Wishful thinking
  5. Shortchanged QA
  6. Inadequate design
  7. Lack of project sponsorship
  8. Confusing estimates with targets
  9. Excessive multi-tasking
  10. Lack of user involvement

Most of the mistakes listed have not changed since 1996 (and were probably well known long before that). Either they’re fundamental, or as an industry we just aren't learning, or we don’t care. Or we can't find the time or secure a mandate to do things right, because of the relentless focus on short-term results:

Stakeholders won’t naturally take a long-term view: they tend to minimize the often extreme down-the-road headaches that result from the cutting of corners necessitated by the rush, rush, rush mentality. They’ll drive the car without ever changing the oil.
Peter Kretzman, Software development’s classic mistakes and the role of the CTO/CIO

The second most severe mistake that a development organization can make is to staff the team with weak personnel: hiring fast or cheap rather than holding out for people who have more experience and better skills, but who cost more. Although the impact of making this mistake is usually severe, it happens in only around half of projects – most companies aren't stupid enough to staff a development team with weak developers, at least not a big, high-profile project.

Classic Mistakes in Software Maintenance

But a lot of companies staff maintenance teams this way, with noobs and maybe a couple of burned out old-timers who are putting in their time and willing to deal with the demands of maintenance until they retire.

You get stuck in maintenance only if you are not good enough to work on new projects. After spending millions of dollars and many developer-years of effort on creating an application, the project is entrusted to the care of the lowest of the low. Crazy!
Pete McBreen, Software Craftsmanship

Capers Jones (Geriatric Issues of Ageing Software 2007, Estimating Software Costs 2008) has found that staffing a maintenance team with inexperienced people destroys productivity and is one of the worst practices that any organization can follow:

Worst Practice Effect on Productivity
Not identifying and cleaning up error-prone code – the 20% of code that contains 80% of bugs -50%
Code with embedded data and hard-coded variables – which contributes to “mass update” problems when this data changes -45%
Staffing maintenance teams with inexperienced people -40%
High complexity code that is hard to understand and change (often the same code that is error-prone) -30%
Lack of good tools for source code navigation and test coverage -28%
Inefficient or nonexistent change control methods -27%

Many of these mistakes are due to not recognizing and not dealing with basic code quality and technical debt issues, figuring out what code is causing you the most trouble and cleaning it up.

The rest are basic, obvious management issues. Keep the people who built the system and who understand it and know how and why it works working on it as long as you can. Make it worth their while to stay, give them meaningful things to work on, and make sure that they have good tools to work with. Find ways for them to work together efficiently, with each other, with other developers, with operations and with the customer.

These simple, stupid mistakes add up over time to huge costs, when you consider that maintenance makes up between 40% and 80% of total software costs. Like the classic mistakes in new development, mistakes in maintenance are obvious and fixable. We know we shouldn't do these things, we know what’s going to happen, and yet we keep doing them, over and again, and we're surprised when things fail. Why?

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Don’t take the Technical Debt Metaphor too far

Because “technical debt” has the word “debt” in it, many people have decided that it makes sense to think and work with technical debt in monetary terms, and treat technical debt as a real financial cost. This is supposed to make it easier for technical people to explain technical debt to the business, and easier to make a business case for paying debt off.

Putting technical debt into financial terms also allows consultants and vendors to try to scare business executives into buying their tools or their help – like Gartner calculating that world wide “IT debt” costs will exceed $1.5 in a couple of more years, or CAST software’s assessment that the average enterprise is carrying millions of dollars of technical debt.

Businesses understand debt. Businesses make a decision to take on debt on and they track it, account for it and manage it. The business always knows how much debt they have, why they took it on, and when they need to pay it off. Businesses don’t accidentally take on debt – debt doesn't just show up on the books one day.

We don't know when we're taking technical debt on

But developers accidentally take on debt all of the time – what Martin Fowler calls “inadvertent debt”, due to inexperience and misunderstandings, everything from “What’s Layering?” to “Now we know how we should have done it” looking at the design a year or two later.

"The point is that while you're programming, you are learning. It's often the case that it can take a year of programming on a project before you understand what the best design approach should have been."
Taking on this kind of debt is inevitable – and you’ll never know when you’re taking it on or how much, because you don’t know what you don’t know.

Even when developers take on debt consciously, they don’t understand the costs at the time – the principal or the interest. Most teams don’t record when they make a trade-off in design or a shortcut in coding or test automation, never mind try to put a value on paying off their choice.

We don’t understand (or often even see) technical debt costs until long after we've taken the costs on. When you’re dealing with quality and stability problems; or when you're estimating out a change and you recognize that you made mistakes in the past or that you took shortcuts that you didn't realize before or shortcuts that you did know about but that turned out to be much more expensive than you expected; or once you understand that you chose the wrong architecture or the wrong technical platform. Or maybe you've just run a static analysis tool like CAST or SONAR which tells you that you have thousands of dollars of technical debt in your code base that you didn't know about until now.

Now try and explain to a business executive that you just realized or just remembered that you have put the company into debt for tens or hundreds of thousands of dollars. Businesses don’t and can’t run this way.

We don't know how much technical debt is really costing us

By expressing everything in financial terms, we’re also pretending that technical debt costs are all hard costs to the business and that we actually know how much the principal and interest costs are: we’re $100,000 in debt and the interest rate is 3% per year. Assigning a monetary value to technical debt costs give them a false sense of precision and accuracy.

Let's be honest. There aren't clear and consistent criteria for costing technical debt and modelling technical debt repayment – we don’t even have a definition of what technical debt is that we can all agree on. Two people can come up with a different technical debt assessment for the same system, because what I think technical debt is and what you think technical debt is aren't the same. And just because a tool says that technical debt costs are $100,000.00 for a code base, doesn't make the number true.

Any principal and interest that you calculate (or some tool calculates for you) are made-up numbers and the business will know this when you try to defend them – which you are going to have to do, if you want to talk in financial terms with someone who does finance for a living. You’re going to be on shaky ground at best – at worse, they’ll understand that you’re not talking about real business debt and wonder what you’re trying to pull off.

The other problem that I see is “debt fatigue”. Everyone is overwhelmed by the global government debt crisis and the real estate debt crisis and the consumer debt crisis and the fiscal cliff and whatever comes next. Your business may be already fighting its own problems with managing its financial debt. Technical debt is one more argument about debt that nobody is looking forward to hearing.

We don’t need to talk about debt with the business

We don’t use the term “technical debt” with the business, or try to explain it in financial debt terms. If we need to rewrite code because it is unstable, we treat this like any other problem that needs to be solved – we cost it out, explain the risks, and prioritize this work with everything else. If we need to rewrite or restructure code in order to make upcoming changes easier, cheaper and less risky, we explain this as part of the work that needs to be done, and justify the costs. If we need to replace or upgrade a platform technology because we are getting poor support from the supplier, we consider this a business risk that needs to be understood and managed. And if code should be refactored or tests filled in, we don’t explain it, we just do it as part of day-to-day engineering work.

We’re dealing with technical debt in terms that the business understands without using a phony financial model. We’re not pretending that we’re carrying off-balance sheet debt that the company needs to rely on technologists to understand and manage. We’re leaving debt valuation and payment amortization arguments to the experts in finance and accounting where they belong, and focusing on solving problems in software, which is where we belong.

Friday, December 14, 2012

SANS Application Security Survey

Frank Kim and I helped out with an industry-wide survey on application security practices. The results of the survey and our analysis can be found in the SANS Analyst Program Reading Room here.

Tuesday, December 11, 2012

Are bugs part of technical debt?

Everybody is talking about technical debt today: developers, testers, consultants, managers - even executives.

But the more that people talk about technical debt, the fuzzier the idea gets, and more watered down the meaning of “technical debt” becomes.

Philippe Kruchten is trying to solve this by suggesting a narrower definition of what technical debt is and what it isn't. He breaks out all of the work on a system into work that is visible or invisible, and that has positive or negative value:

Visible Invisible
Positive Value New Features Architecture and Structure
Negative Value Defects Technical Debt

In this model, defects that have been found but haven't been fixed yet aren't technical debt - they are just part of the work that everyone can see and that has to be prioritized with the rest of the backlog.

But what about defects that you've found, but that you've decided that you’re not going to fix – bugs that you think you can get away without fixing (or that the people before you thought they could get away without fixing)?

These bugs are technical debt – because you’re pretending that the bugs are invisible. You’re betting that you don’t have to take on the cost of fixing these problems in the short term at least, just like other kinds of technical debt: copy and paste code and conscious short-cuts in design and compounding complexity and automated tests that should have been written but weren't and refactoring that should have been done that wasn't and code that you wrote that you wished you hadn't because you didn't know the language well enough back then and anything else that you may have done or not done in the past that has a chance of slowing down your work and making it harder in the future.

The same rule applies to results from static analysis bug finding tools like Findbugs and Klocwork and Fortify which point out coding problems that could be real bugs and security vulnerabilities. After you filter out the false positives and motherhood, and the code that works but really should be cleaned up, you’re left with code that is wrong or broken – code that should be fixed.

Keep in mind that these are problems that haven’t been found yet in testing, or found in production by customers – or at least nobody knows that they've run across these bugs. These are problems that the team knows about, but that aren't visible to anybody else. Until they are fixed or at least added to the backlog of work that will be done soon, they are another part of the debt load that the team has taken on and will have to worry about paying back some day. This is why tools like SONAR include static analysis coding violations when calculating technical debt costs.

I agree that bugs aren't technical debt – unless you’re trying to pretend that the bugs aren't there and that you won’t have to fix them. Then it’s like any other technical debt trade off – you’ll need to see if your bet pays off over time.

Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Rule of 30 – When is a method, class or subsystem too big?

A question that constantly comes up from people that care about writing good code, is: what’s the right size for a method or function, or a class, or a package or any other chunk of code? At some point any piece of code can be too big to understand properly – but how big is too big?

It starts at the method or function level.

In Code Complete, Steve McConnell says that the theoretical best maximum limit for a method or function is the number of lines that can fit on one screen (i.e., that a developer can see at one time). He then goes on to reference studies from the 1980s and 1990s which found that the sweet spot for functions is somewhere between 65 lines and 200 lines: routines this size are cheaper to develop and have fewer errors per line of code. However, at some point beyond 200 lines you cross into a danger zone where code quality and understandability will fall apart: code that can’t be tested and can’t be changed safely. Eventually you end up with what Michael Feathers calls “runaway methods”: routines that are several hundreds or thousands of lines long and that are constantly being changed and that continuously get bigger and scarier.

Patrick Duboy looks deeper into this analysis on method length, and points to a more modern study from 2002 that shows that code with shorter routines has fewer defects overall, which matches with most people’s intuition and experience.

Smaller must be better

Bob Martin takes the idea that “if small is good, then smaller must be better” to an extreme in Clean Code:

The first rule of functions is that they should be small. The second rule of functions is that they should be smaller than that. Functions should not be 100 lines long. Functions should hardly ever be 20 lines long.
Martin admits that “This is not an assertion that I can justify. I can’t produce any references to research that shows that very small functions are better.” So like many other rules or best practices in the software development community, this is a qualitative judgement made by someone based on their personal experience writing code – more of an aesthetic argument – or even an ethical one – than an empirical one. Style over substance.

The same “small is better” guidance applies to classes, packages and subsystems – all of the building blocks of a system. In Code Complete, a study from 1996 found that classes with more routines had more defects. Like functions, according to Clean Code, classes should also be “smaller than small”. Some people recommend that 200 lines is a good limit for a class – not a method, or as few as 50-60 lines (in Ben Nadel’s Object Calisthenics exercise)and that a class should consist of “less than 10” or “not more than 20” methods. The famous C3 project – where Extreme Programming was born – had 12 methods per class on average. And there should be no more than 10 classes per package.

PMD, a static analysis tool that helps to highlight problems in code structure and style, defines some default values for code size limits: 100 lines per method, 1000 lines per class, and 10 methods in a class. Checkstyle, a similar tool, suggests different limits: 50 lines in a method, 1500 lines in a class.

Rule of 30

Looking for guidelines like this led me to the “Rule of 30” in Refactoring in Large Software Projects by Martin Lippert and Stephen Roock:

If an element consists of more than 30 subelements, it is highly probable that there is a serious problem:

a) Methods should not have more than an average of 30 code lines (not counting line spaces and comments).

b) A class should contain an average of less than 30 methods, resulting in up to 900 lines of code.

c) A package shouldn’t contain more than 30 classes, thus comprising up to 27,000 code lines.

d) Subsystems with more than 30 packages should be avoided. Such a subsystem would count up to 900 classes with up to 810,000 lines of code.

e) A system with 30 subsystems would thus possess 27,000 classes and 24.3 million code lines.

What does this look like? Take a biggish system of 1 million NCLOC. This should break down into:
  • 30,000+ methods
  • 1,000+ classes
  • 30+ packages
  • Hopefully more than 1 subsystem
How many systems in the real world look like this, or close to this – especially big systems that have been around for a few years?

Are these rules useful? How should you use them?

Using code size as the basis for rules like this is simple: easy to see and understand. Too simple, many people would argue: a better indicator of when code is too big is cyclomatic complexity or some other measure of code quality. But some recent studies show that code size actually is a strong predictor of complexity and quality – that

“complexity metrics are highly correlated with lines of code, and therefore the more complex metrics provide no further information that could not be measured simplify with lines of code”.
In "Beyond Lines of Code: Do we Need more Complexity Metrics" in Making Software, the authors go so far as to say that lines of code should be considered always as the "first and only metric" for defect prediction, development and maintenance models.

Recognizing that simple sizing rules are arbitrary, should you use them, and if so how?

I like the idea of rough and easy-to-understand rules of thumb that you can keep in the back of your mind when writing code or looking at code and deciding whether it should be refactored. The real value of a guideline like the Rule of 30 is when you're reviewing code and identifying risks and costs.

But enforcing these rules in a heavy handed way on every piece of code as it is being written is foolish. You don’t want to stop when you’re about to write the 31st line in a method – it would slow down work to a crawl. And forcing everyone to break code up to fit arbitrary size limits will make the code worse, not better – the structure will be dominated by short-term decisions.

As Jeff Langer points out in his chapter discussing Ken Beck’s four rules of Simple Design in Clean Code:

“Our goal is to keep our overall system small while we are also keeping our functions and classes small. Remember however that this rule is the lowest priority of the four rules of Simple Design. So, although it’s important to keep class and function count low, it’s more important to have tests, eliminate duplication, and express yourself.”
Sometimes it will take more than 30 lines (or 20 or 5 or whatever the cut-off is) to get a coherent piece of work done. It’s more important to be careful in coming up with the right abstractions and algorithms and to write clean clear code – if a cut-off guideline on size helps to do that, use it. If it doesn't, then don’t bother.

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Why Scrum Won

In the 1990s and early 2000s a number of different lightweight "agile" development methods sprung up.

Today a few shops use Extreme Programming, including most notably ThoughtWorks and Industrial Logic. But if you ask around, especially in enterprise shops, almost everybody who is “doing Agile” today is following Scrum or something based on Scrum.

What happened? Why did Scrum win out over XP, FDD, DSDM, Crystal, Adaptive Software Development, Lean, and all of the other approaches that have come and gone? Why are most organizations following Scrum or planning to adopt Scrum and not the Agile Unified Process or Crystal Clear (or Crystal Yellow, or Orange, Red, Violet, Magenta or Blue, Diamond or Sapphire for that matter)?

Is Scrum that much better than every other idea that came out of the Agile development movement?

Simplicity wins out

Scrum’s principal strength is that it is simpler to understand and follow than most other methods – almost naively simple. There isn't much to it: short incremental sprints, daily standup meetings, a couple of other regular and short planning and review meetings around the start and end of each sprint, some work to prioritize (or order) the backlog and keep it up-to-date, simple progress reporting, and a flat, simple team structure. You can explain Scrum in detail in a few pages and understand it less than an hour.

This means that Scrum is easy for managers to get their heads around and easy to implement, at a team-level at least (how to successfully scale to enterprise-level Scrum in large integrated programs with distributed teams using Scrum of Scrums or Communities of Practice or however you are supposed to do it, is still fuzzy as hell).

Scrum is easy for developers to understand too and easy for them to follow. Unlike XP or some of the other more well-defined Agile methods, Scrum is not prescriptive and doesn't demand a lot of technical discipline. It lets the team decide what they should do and how they should do it. They can get up to speed and start “doing Agile” quickly and cheaply.

But simplicity isn't the whole answer

But there’s more to Scrum’s success than simplicity. The real trick that put Scrum out front is certification. There’s no such thing as a Certified Extreme Programmer but there are thousands of certified ScrumMasters and certified product owners and advanced certified developers and even more advanced certified professionals and the certified trainers and coaches and officially registered training providers that certified them.

And now the PMI has got involved with its PMI-ACP Certified Agile Practitioner designation which basically ensures that people understand Scrum, with a bit of XP, Lean and Kanban thrown in to be comprehensive.

Whether Scrum certification is good or bad or useful at all is beside the point.

Certification helped Scrum succeed for several reasons. First, certification lead to early codification and standardization of what Scrum is all about. Consultants still have their own ideas and continue to fight between themselves over the only right way to do Scrum and the future direction of Scrum and what should be in Scrum and what shouldn't, but the people who are implementing Scrum don’t need to worry about the differences or get caught up in politics and religious wars.

Certification is a win win win…

Managers like standardization and certification – especially busy, risk-adverse managers in large mainstream organizations. If they are going to “do Agile”, they want to make sure that they do it right. By paying for standardized certified training and coaching on a standardized method, they can be reassured that they should get the same results as everyone else. Because of standardization and certification, getting started with Scrum is low risk: it’s easy to find registered certified trainers and coaches offering good quality professional training programs and implementation assistance. Scrum has become a product – everyone knows what it looks like and what to expect.

Certification also makes it easier for managers to hire new people (demand a certification upfront and you know that new hires will understand the fundamentals of Scrum and be able to fit in right away) and it’s easier to move people between teams and projects that are all following the same standardized approach.

Developers like this too, because certification (even the modest CSM) helps to make them more employable, and it doesn't take a lot of time, money or work to get certified.

But most importantly, certification has created a small army of consultants and trainers who are constantly busy training and coaching a bigger army of certified Scrum practitioners. There is serious competition between these providers, pushing each other to do something to get noticed in the crowd, saturating the Internet with books and articles and videos and webinars and blogs on Scrum and Scrumness, effectively drowning out everything else about Agile development.

And the standardization of Scrum has also helped create an industry of companies selling software tools to help manage Scrum projects, another thing that managers in large organizations like, because these tools help them to get some control over what teams are doing and give them even more confidence that Scrum is real. The tool vendors are happy to sponsor studies and presentations and conferences about Agile (er, Scrum), adding to the noise and momentum behind Scrum.

Scrum certification is a win win win: for managers, developers, authors, consultants and vendors.

It looks like David Anderson may be trying to do a similar thing with Kanban certification. It’s hard to see Kanban taking over the world of software development – while it’s great for managing support and maintenance teams, and helps to control work flow at a micro-level, Kanban doesn't fit for larger project work. But then neither does Scrum. And who would have picked Scrum as the winner 10 years ago?

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